Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Random thoughts out of boredom

Here I am sitting now at work for one more hour with not much to do. And since I can not surf at the forum I just will throw some random stuff out here to kill the time a bit.

So far I have something like 6.4k hands down this month which is pretty okay for me. But I am only break even over this sample which is ~1.6pt (about 4BI) under AIEV only. I know HEM EV calculation is not 100% right. But it is at least an indication that I am not running that good especially the other funny things like set under set, set under straight or straight under straight are not into this calculation.

I know this is just variance and over the longrun the distribution between good and bad run is for everybody the same. So I can not really care about it even it makes me sick what kind of beats I get.

But what I care about is the fact that I have the feeling I just give every single session like ~1.5pt (maybe a little bit lesser) cause bad / suboptimal play away. A main problem is still my red line but my not good run influences that, too. But besides this I have still so much work to do especially on turn and river I think.

But then again I maybe try to plug / optimize too many things at once. It seems like I should really concentrate on one or maybe two things at once and therefore doing them right.

I have the hope I can turn things around for this month and have a shot to win / tide the prop bet. I do not care that much about the $50 I put on the line but I simply do not like to lose bets lol.

Another thing I am really looking forward is the solution on SSer FTP wants to make this month. I am bit afraid they will not pull off something this year because we are talking abot FTP which have not the reputation to change things really fast. Anyway a real solution on this matter would make the games so much better i.e. profitable IMO.

Already talking about FTP: the next Mini-FTOPS are there. But I will only play one event, the $22 tourney on 18th Dec (150k GTD). I considered to play a few more but this would just collide with my work/school shedule and I am not in the mood to pony up too much in tournaments entires when I am struggling at the cash tables. When I run good in this toruney I will maybe play the $55 ME on 20th Dec, too.

Thats enough for the moment. I killed enough time and can finally call it a day here.

At the end a funny hand I played when I started a table last Staurday.

reflop: Hero is SB with ,
Hero bets $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) , , (2 players)
BB bets $0.25, Hero raises $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.50) (2 players)
BB bets $0.25, Hero raises $4, BB calls $3.75

River: ($12.50) (2 players)
BB bets $19.73 (All-In), Hero calls $18.98 (All-In)

Total pot: $50.46

Hero had 3, 3 (three of a kind, threes).
BB had Q, 9 (high card, King).
Outcome: Hero won $49.96

May all our opponents be like this.



  1. Jeebus, last month I ran -30ptbb/100 in EV for days on end. A negative 1.6 you write off to variance? WTF do you know about variance, kid??

  2. variance is variance no matter how big the sample is simply becuase this is AIEV only.