Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Random thoughts out of boredom

Here I am sitting now at work for one more hour with not much to do. And since I can not surf at the forum I just will throw some random stuff out here to kill the time a bit.

So far I have something like 6.4k hands down this month which is pretty okay for me. But I am only break even over this sample which is ~1.6pt (about 4BI) under AIEV only. I know HEM EV calculation is not 100% right. But it is at least an indication that I am not running that good especially the other funny things like set under set, set under straight or straight under straight are not into this calculation.

I know this is just variance and over the longrun the distribution between good and bad run is for everybody the same. So I can not really care about it even it makes me sick what kind of beats I get.

But what I care about is the fact that I have the feeling I just give every single session like ~1.5pt (maybe a little bit lesser) cause bad / suboptimal play away. A main problem is still my red line but my not good run influences that, too. But besides this I have still so much work to do especially on turn and river I think.

But then again I maybe try to plug / optimize too many things at once. It seems like I should really concentrate on one or maybe two things at once and therefore doing them right.

I have the hope I can turn things around for this month and have a shot to win / tide the prop bet. I do not care that much about the $50 I put on the line but I simply do not like to lose bets lol.

Another thing I am really looking forward is the solution on SSer FTP wants to make this month. I am bit afraid they will not pull off something this year because we are talking abot FTP which have not the reputation to change things really fast. Anyway a real solution on this matter would make the games so much better i.e. profitable IMO.

Already talking about FTP: the next Mini-FTOPS are there. But I will only play one event, the $22 tourney on 18th Dec (150k GTD). I considered to play a few more but this would just collide with my work/school shedule and I am not in the mood to pony up too much in tournaments entires when I am struggling at the cash tables. When I run good in this toruney I will maybe play the $55 ME on 20th Dec, too.

Thats enough for the moment. I killed enough time and can finally call it a day here.


At the end a funny hand I played when I started a table last Staurday.

reflop: Hero is SB with ,
Hero bets $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) , , (2 players)
BB bets $0.25, Hero raises $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.50) (2 players)
BB bets $0.25, Hero raises $4, BB calls $3.75

River: ($12.50) (2 players)
BB bets $19.73 (All-In), Hero calls $18.98 (All-In)

Total pot: $50.46

Results:
Hero had 3, 3 (three of a kind, threes).
BB had Q, 9 (high card, King).
Outcome: Hero won $49.96

May all our opponents be like this.

r2w

2 comments:

  1. Jeebus, last month I ran -30ptbb/100 in EV for days on end. A negative 1.6 you write off to variance? WTF do you know about variance, kid??

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  2. variance is variance no matter how big the sample is simply becuase this is AIEV only.

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